1 00:00:02,190 --> 00:00:34,630 [Music] 2 00:00:40,270 --> 00:00:37,670 we got it down to one one Buton that I 3 00:00:41,029 --> 00:00:40,280 need to push so we're in good we're in 4 00:00:42,910 --> 00:00:41,039 good 5 00:00:47,510 --> 00:00:42,920 shape thank 6 00:00:51,830 --> 00:00:47,520 you um it's um it's wonderful to see 7 00:00:53,389 --> 00:00:51,840 that science can uh come to grips with 8 00:00:57,349 --> 00:00:53,399 problems like 9 00:01:01,509 --> 00:00:57,359 this um you just have to wait 65 years 10 00:01:04,310 --> 00:01:01,519 which is um what happened to me you can 11 00:01:06,109 --> 00:01:04,320 see the my my hair was a different color 12 00:01:09,310 --> 00:01:06,119 at the 13 00:01:12,789 --> 00:01:09,320 beginning uh it's always um a bit 14 00:01:14,710 --> 00:01:12,799 nostalgic for me to come back to the 15 00:01:19,070 --> 00:01:14,720 farm 16 00:01:22,910 --> 00:01:19,080 here um I spent nearly four years on on 17 00:01:25,670 --> 00:01:22,920 this campus first in the computation 18 00:01:28,069 --> 00:01:25,680 Center uh which was a couple of years 19 00:01:30,510 --> 00:01:28,079 ahead of IBM in system 20 00:01:32,469 --> 00:01:30,520 development and later at The Institute 21 00:01:36,630 --> 00:01:32,479 for Plasma 22 00:01:41,749 --> 00:01:36,640 Research um under Professor Peter 23 00:01:44,709 --> 00:01:41,759 sturak developing models of the solar 24 00:01:48,789 --> 00:01:44,719 Corona uh palsar 25 00:01:52,109 --> 00:01:48,799 energy and unidentified flying 26 00:01:54,990 --> 00:01:52,119 objects the year was 27 00:01:59,350 --> 00:01:55,000 1972 and it was already clear at least 28 00:02:02,510 --> 00:01:59,360 to us that these three Cosmic subjects 29 00:02:10,390 --> 00:02:02,520 had a a lot in 30 00:02:20,150 --> 00:02:14,710 say here you see uh President Clinton 31 00:02:25,869 --> 00:02:20,160 having a private talk with his science 32 00:02:30,589 --> 00:02:25,879 advisor uh from 93 to 98 Professor Jack 33 00:02:33,509 --> 00:02:30,599 Gibbons an astrophysicist and atomist 34 00:02:37,270 --> 00:02:33,519 specialized in the structure of the 35 00:02:39,790 --> 00:02:37,280 Sun and energy conservation which is 36 00:02:44,110 --> 00:02:39,800 what got him the 37 00:02:46,589 --> 00:02:44,120 job he held this prestigious position at 38 00:02:48,949 --> 00:02:46,599 the time when Mr Lawrence 39 00:02:52,350 --> 00:02:48,959 Rockefeller well-known supporter of 40 00:02:54,910 --> 00:02:52,360 American Science and the 41 00:02:58,990 --> 00:02:54,920 environment strongly suggested to 42 00:03:00,949 --> 00:02:59,000 President Clinton to remove the secrecy 43 00:03:05,390 --> 00:03:00,959 and the stigma 44 00:03:09,030 --> 00:03:05,400 that surrounded the UFO issue in the 45 00:03:10,670 --> 00:03:09,040 US the problem was a scientific one but 46 00:03:13,670 --> 00:03:10,680 it was mainly 47 00:03:16,229 --> 00:03:13,680 political and as we all know the secret 48 00:03:19,470 --> 00:03:16,239 was not 49 00:03:22,149 --> 00:03:19,480 lifted in February 94 I had the 50 00:03:24,509 --> 00:03:22,159 opportunity to Listen to Professor 51 00:03:26,789 --> 00:03:24,519 Gibbons at the annual meeting of the 52 00:03:31,630 --> 00:03:26,799 American Association for the advancement 53 00:03:34,869 --> 00:03:31,640 of Science in this city in San 54 00:03:36,949 --> 00:03:34,879 Francisco where I was part of a panel 55 00:03:40,509 --> 00:03:36,959 about the use of computer networking and 56 00:03:41,990 --> 00:03:40,519 the management of crisis in industrial 57 00:03:43,550 --> 00:03:42,000 and 58 00:03:47,070 --> 00:03:43,560 environmental 59 00:03:50,070 --> 00:03:47,080 issues he uh presented Dr Gibbons 60 00:03:54,789 --> 00:03:50,080 presented the keynote 61 00:03:58,030 --> 00:03:54,799 address and gracefully two questions 62 00:04:00,670 --> 00:03:58,040 afterwards um of course uh someone from 63 00:04:03,509 --> 00:04:00,680 the audience asked him 64 00:04:07,110 --> 00:04:03,519 how do you advise the president of the 65 00:04:10,830 --> 00:04:07,120 United States when Mr rockerfeller wants 66 00:04:13,229 --> 00:04:10,840 him to reveal once and for all the 67 00:04:15,710 --> 00:04:13,239 reality of unexplained objects in the 68 00:04:18,349 --> 00:04:15,720 planet's 69 00:04:19,030 --> 00:04:18,359 neighborhood there were a few laughs in 70 00:04:24,830 --> 00:04:19,040 the 71 00:04:26,870 --> 00:04:24,840 audience followed by deep and Silent 72 00:04:30,189 --> 00:04:26,880 expectation Dr 73 00:04:34,749 --> 00:04:30,199 Gibbons picked up the mic and said he 74 00:04:37,629 --> 00:04:34,759 could not answer in place of the white 75 00:04:41,230 --> 00:04:37,639 house but he could tell a short story 76 00:04:43,590 --> 00:04:41,240 that would summarize his personal 77 00:04:47,510 --> 00:04:43,600 situation and I'll mention that because 78 00:04:51,110 --> 00:04:47,520 it's now our personal situation here 79 00:04:53,189 --> 00:04:51,120 it's about an older man who is tired and 80 00:04:57,189 --> 00:04:53,199 goes home one 81 00:05:00,230 --> 00:04:57,199 evening in the grass along the way he 82 00:05:03,590 --> 00:05:00,240 detects an unusual light 83 00:05:08,070 --> 00:05:03,600 as he gets closer he discovers a 84 00:05:12,189 --> 00:05:08,080 frog with the odd detail that it wears a 85 00:05:15,189 --> 00:05:12,199 little lighted Golden 86 00:05:17,510 --> 00:05:15,199 Crown so he's intrigued by that 87 00:05:20,870 --> 00:05:17,520 Discovery and he picks up the 88 00:05:25,670 --> 00:05:20,880 Frog and he's about to put it in his 89 00:05:31,590 --> 00:05:29,670 him the Frog this was at a Triple A in s 90 00:05:35,830 --> 00:05:31,600 Francisco in front of all the scientists 91 00:05:39,510 --> 00:05:35,840 in in the Bay Area okay so the Frog 92 00:05:41,870 --> 00:05:39,520 explains that in reality she is a young 93 00:05:45,749 --> 00:05:41,880 very wealthy 94 00:05:49,430 --> 00:05:45,759 princess changed into a frog by a mean 95 00:05:53,110 --> 00:05:49,440 magician and all he has to do is to kiss 96 00:05:55,230 --> 00:05:53,120 her she will become human again they 97 00:05:58,110 --> 00:05:55,240 will live together in happiness and they 98 00:06:01,430 --> 00:05:58,120 will have many wonderful 99 00:06:04,150 --> 00:06:01,440 children the old man pund the situation 100 00:06:08,469 --> 00:06:04,160 seriously for a while and then he puts 101 00:06:10,850 --> 00:06:08,479 her in his pocket saying at my age I'd 102 00:06:15,550 --> 00:06:10,860 rather have a talking 103 00:06:19,070 --> 00:06:15,560 [Laughter] 104 00:06:22,070 --> 00:06:19,080 frog that's funny but it's 105 00:06:24,990 --> 00:06:22,080 also the most clear explanation I've 106 00:06:28,469 --> 00:06:25,000 ever heard at the highest 107 00:06:31,189 --> 00:06:28,479 level regarding the historical status of 108 00:06:33,510 --> 00:06:31,199 the UFO problem in the United States 109 00:06:38,029 --> 00:06:33,520 remember this is the advisor the science 110 00:06:45,830 --> 00:06:41,909 president second thing I have to 111 00:06:49,270 --> 00:06:45,840 mention is um when I joined this 112 00:06:51,550 --> 00:06:49,280 wonderful campus uh I I was hired to 113 00:06:54,830 --> 00:06:51,560 develop a generalized database system 114 00:06:57,990 --> 00:06:54,840 for the campus and medical school and I 115 00:07:00,670 --> 00:06:58,000 took the opportunity since I had the 116 00:07:05,790 --> 00:07:00,680 computer to Implement cataloges of 117 00:07:12,629 --> 00:07:09,670 1973 and we developed a screen to 118 00:07:15,670 --> 00:07:12,639 separate the most interesting cases from 119 00:07:17,670 --> 00:07:15,680 those that were likely to be 120 00:07:20,589 --> 00:07:17,680 explainable which is the first thing you 121 00:07:23,790 --> 00:07:20,599 do in science you clean up the 122 00:07:27,510 --> 00:07:23,800 data um here by the way You' see some of 123 00:07:30,390 --> 00:07:27,520 the pioneers of this uh discipline uh 124 00:07:33,189 --> 00:07:30,400 from left to right Dr James Harder 125 00:07:35,510 --> 00:07:33,199 University of California Berkeley Dr 126 00:07:40,909 --> 00:07:35,520 Richard Haynes of 127 00:07:43,990 --> 00:07:40,919 NASA Mr Brad Sparks an individual 128 00:07:48,710 --> 00:07:44,000 researcher uh myself with black 129 00:07:53,070 --> 00:07:48,720 hair um Dr Bruce makabe from the US Navy 130 00:07:57,869 --> 00:07:53,080 and uh Professor sturak who is still 131 00:08:00,110 --> 00:07:57,879 very much alive and lives here in in 132 00:08:04,589 --> 00:08:00,120 uh in pal 133 00:08:08,830 --> 00:08:04,599 Alto and he was again the first man who 134 00:08:13,230 --> 00:08:08,840 initiated UFO research at 135 00:08:16,589 --> 00:08:13,240 Stanford at the time the um French space 136 00:08:19,629 --> 00:08:16,599 agency the cnes which by the way is the 137 00:08:22,950 --> 00:08:19,639 third wealthiest space agency in the 138 00:08:25,270 --> 00:08:22,960 world they own the Kuru base in uh on 139 00:08:28,029 --> 00:08:25,280 the Equator so they are the only ones 140 00:08:30,589 --> 00:08:28,039 who can launch from the equator which is 141 00:08:33,230 --> 00:08:30,599 obviously a big advantage in launching 142 00:08:37,909 --> 00:08:33,240 satellites especially heavy satellites 143 00:08:41,469 --> 00:08:37,919 they launched the cap telescope from 144 00:08:45,630 --> 00:08:41,479 Kuru um so the cnes had had an interest 145 00:08:48,470 --> 00:08:45,640 in the same issue and they were talking 146 00:08:52,509 --> 00:08:48,480 about a useful sample after cleaning the 147 00:08:56,190 --> 00:08:52,519 data of uh 5% to 10% of the 148 00:09:00,269 --> 00:08:56,200 cases the remaining ones being explained 149 00:09:02,030 --> 00:09:00,279 are too poor in um in terms of 150 00:09:05,430 --> 00:09:02,040 information 151 00:09:09,110 --> 00:09:05,440 content as we all know thanks to thanks 152 00:09:12,470 --> 00:09:09,120 to the efforts of the cnes the 153 00:09:16,590 --> 00:09:12,480 percentage has now fallen to 2% of the 154 00:09:19,350 --> 00:09:16,600 data that's valuable data for 155 00:09:22,630 --> 00:09:19,360 scientists um after deeper analysis of 156 00:09:25,150 --> 00:09:22,640 exceptional Optical effects um 157 00:09:26,389 --> 00:09:25,160 observation errors and the influence of 158 00:09:29,269 --> 00:09:26,399 witness 159 00:09:30,389 --> 00:09:29,279 imagination back here in California our 160 00:09:35,430 --> 00:09:30,399 little 161 00:09:39,230 --> 00:09:35,440 group um included a a retired army 162 00:09:40,750 --> 00:09:39,240 officer about 1943 he told us he used to 163 00:09:44,350 --> 00:09:40,760 be in 164 00:09:45,829 --> 00:09:44,360 charge um of surveying and detecting 165 00:09:48,870 --> 00:09:45,839 German 166 00:09:53,430 --> 00:09:48,880 submarines along the northeast coast of 167 00:09:55,949 --> 00:09:53,440 the United States in the general area of 168 00:09:57,590 --> 00:09:55,959 Massachusetts his unit had studied the 169 00:10:00,670 --> 00:09:57,600 complexity of 170 00:10:03,790 --> 00:10:00,680 statistics and he strongly disagreed 171 00:10:07,230 --> 00:10:03,800 with us he strongly stated that 172 00:10:10,590 --> 00:10:07,240 ethologist had the problem 173 00:10:15,230 --> 00:10:10,600 backward in his position if 2% of the 174 00:10:18,310 --> 00:10:15,240 reported cases turned out to be German 175 00:10:22,069 --> 00:10:18,320 Subs the situation was very serious 176 00:10:25,670 --> 00:10:22,079 indeed for the United States therefore 177 00:10:28,350 --> 00:10:25,680 he encouraged me to apply to UFOs the 178 00:10:30,949 --> 00:10:28,360 same discipline that the Army had 179 00:10:34,829 --> 00:10:30,959 applied to the detection of enomy 180 00:10:37,670 --> 00:10:34,839 periscopes in the waves of the North 181 00:10:38,829 --> 00:10:37,680 Atlantic that changed a lot of things 182 00:10:42,110 --> 00:10:38,839 for 183 00:10:45,990 --> 00:10:42,120 me he told me something like this you're 184 00:10:49,350 --> 00:10:46,000 doing scientific research therefore if 185 00:10:50,389 --> 00:10:49,360 you have explained 98% of the reports 186 00:10:53,310 --> 00:10:50,399 you're 187 00:10:55,949 --> 00:10:53,320 happy um they all Co cost the same 188 00:10:58,710 --> 00:10:55,959 amount pretty much and you believe you 189 00:11:01,910 --> 00:10:58,720 solve the problem and if you remember 190 00:11:04,150 --> 00:11:01,920 from many years during Project Blue Book 191 00:11:06,870 --> 00:11:04,160 the Air Force was sending report to 192 00:11:10,870 --> 00:11:06,880 Congress saying again this year we have 193 00:11:14,470 --> 00:11:10,880 explained all but 2% of all the reports 194 00:11:16,550 --> 00:11:14,480 coming from the American people and 195 00:11:20,150 --> 00:11:16,560 everybody applauded and everybody went 196 00:11:26,230 --> 00:11:24,110 else he said my own job was Intelligence 197 00:11:30,509 --> 00:11:26,240 my problem was exactly the reverse of 198 00:11:33,430 --> 00:11:30,519 yours the 98% EXP cleanable cases have 199 00:11:37,710 --> 00:11:33,440 probably been given to me by the 200 00:11:44,350 --> 00:11:41,790 same the remaining 2% could kill me and 201 00:11:47,590 --> 00:11:44,360 they will cost a lot 202 00:11:50,430 --> 00:11:47,600 more and detecting them you know is 203 00:11:53,430 --> 00:11:50,440 going to be difficult that's where we 204 00:11:55,750 --> 00:11:53,440 are I never forgot that 205 00:11:58,829 --> 00:11:55,760 lesson When government services 206 00:12:00,590 --> 00:11:58,839 announced today that the great majority 207 00:12:05,150 --> 00:12:00,600 of of the reports are 208 00:12:07,590 --> 00:12:05,160 explained as we saw recently from before 209 00:12:09,790 --> 00:12:07,600 Congress that simply means for an 210 00:12:14,670 --> 00:12:09,800 information guy like 211 00:12:17,230 --> 00:12:14,680 me that the input is very poorly 212 00:12:20,430 --> 00:12:17,240 controlled what's important is the 213 00:12:30,430 --> 00:12:25,710 2% my third thing I need to get 214 00:12:33,870 --> 00:12:30,440 into is this in the day when Madame 215 00:12:37,350 --> 00:12:33,880 curri was trying to characterize the 216 00:12:39,509 --> 00:12:37,360 Unexplained radiation sources within 217 00:12:41,509 --> 00:12:39,519 pitch blend which is a completely 218 00:12:44,590 --> 00:12:41,519 uninteresting 219 00:12:47,910 --> 00:12:44,600 material she only obtained one tenth of 220 00:12:51,389 --> 00:12:47,920 a gram of radium chloride for several 221 00:12:55,110 --> 00:12:51,399 tons of raw material 222 00:12:57,590 --> 00:12:55,120 tons the 10th of gr became her second 223 00:13:00,230 --> 00:12:57,600 novel 224 00:13:03,430 --> 00:13:00,240 prize this scientific and strategic 225 00:13:05,829 --> 00:13:03,440 issue posed by UFOs cannot be left 226 00:13:08,150 --> 00:13:05,839 unanswered 227 00:13:10,990 --> 00:13:08,160 indefinitely not only are ordinary 228 00:13:14,189 --> 00:13:11,000 citizens reporting personal observations 229 00:13:17,110 --> 00:13:14,199 with increasingly precise 230 00:13:20,710 --> 00:13:17,120 parameters but since the last few years 231 00:13:21,790 --> 00:13:20,720 defense Services have been equipped with 232 00:13:24,629 --> 00:13:21,800 modern 233 00:13:29,350 --> 00:13:24,639 systems that enable correlations as we 234 00:13:32,790 --> 00:13:29,360 saw before between space the atmosphere 235 00:13:36,790 --> 00:13:32,800 and the surface of our planet that 236 00:13:42,150 --> 00:13:39,470 situation it's no longer possible to 237 00:13:45,350 --> 00:13:42,160 speculate about hypothetical 238 00:13:47,230 --> 00:13:45,360 Illusions errors or 239 00:13:50,990 --> 00:13:47,240 hallucinations back in France the 240 00:13:54,189 --> 00:13:51,000 services of the cnes um can now 241 00:13:57,230 --> 00:13:54,199 correlate witness observations with 242 00:13:58,990 --> 00:13:57,240 precise weather measurements at the time 243 00:14:01,910 --> 00:13:59,000 data from the military space space 244 00:14:05,470 --> 00:14:01,920 observations and and local 245 00:14:08,150 --> 00:14:05,480 airports which are now equipped with air 246 00:14:09,509 --> 00:14:08,160 pretty interesting atmospheric 247 00:14:12,829 --> 00:14:09,519 monitoring 248 00:14:14,470 --> 00:14:12,839 system the same is true in the us as we 249 00:14:16,150 --> 00:14:14,480 saw in an impressive number of 250 00:14:19,030 --> 00:14:16,160 measurements by 251 00:14:20,509 --> 00:14:19,040 aircraft equipped with electronic and 252 00:14:24,550 --> 00:14:20,519 Optical 253 00:14:26,710 --> 00:14:24,560 detectors invisible and infrared light 254 00:14:31,350 --> 00:14:26,720 these observations lasted dozens of 255 00:14:35,710 --> 00:14:31,360 minutes and hours allowing very precise 256 00:14:43,310 --> 00:14:39,150 Gathering let me get to my last section 257 00:14:47,590 --> 00:14:43,320 and this the only one that has a a curve 258 00:14:49,629 --> 00:14:47,600 uh a graph so after all this is Stanford 259 00:14:53,269 --> 00:14:49,639 I have to have at least one graph you 260 00:14:55,949 --> 00:14:53,279 know after what Dr Nolan showed you know 261 00:14:59,509 --> 00:14:55,959 was kind of overwhelming so this is not 262 00:15:02,189 --> 00:14:59,519 overwhelming but it's interesting 263 00:15:06,829 --> 00:15:02,199 why is it uh that the phenomenon remains 264 00:15:10,590 --> 00:15:06,839 so mysterious 65 years for much of the 265 00:15:14,870 --> 00:15:10,600 public and even for the 266 00:15:16,990 --> 00:15:14,880 Pentagon um I'm I'm not breaching any 267 00:15:19,829 --> 00:15:17,000 security here but I'm pretty sure that 268 00:15:23,870 --> 00:15:19,839 the Pentagon has no idea what's really 269 00:15:26,269 --> 00:15:23,880 going on at the big at at the scale that 270 00:15:29,389 --> 00:15:26,279 we're addressing 271 00:15:32,470 --> 00:15:29,399 here um the answer Li in a very 272 00:15:35,030 --> 00:15:32,480 statistical effect that you can see here 273 00:15:37,990 --> 00:15:35,040 that's very often 274 00:15:40,230 --> 00:15:38,000 neglected um the graph can be read in 275 00:15:42,509 --> 00:15:40,240 the following way the probability that 276 00:15:46,030 --> 00:15:42,519 an observer will be 277 00:15:47,949 --> 00:15:46,040 motivated after to get to get a report 278 00:15:51,389 --> 00:15:47,959 somebody has to have a motivation to 279 00:15:53,110 --> 00:15:51,399 send a report to you okay we assume 280 00:15:54,949 --> 00:15:53,120 people will always do that because they 281 00:15:57,590 --> 00:15:54,959 want their name in the paper and so on 282 00:16:01,069 --> 00:15:57,600 that's not true and 283 00:16:05,910 --> 00:16:03,990 the the probability that the Observer is 284 00:16:09,069 --> 00:16:05,920 going to be motivated to send this 285 00:16:12,629 --> 00:16:09,079 report depends on the strangeness of the 286 00:16:15,230 --> 00:16:12,639 experience which is the horizontal scale 287 00:16:18,910 --> 00:16:15,240 here and this is somewhat arbitrary I 288 00:16:20,829 --> 00:16:18,920 mean admittedly I made it up but uh it's 289 00:16:23,949 --> 00:16:20,839 you know it will correlate with your 290 00:16:25,629 --> 00:16:23,959 data if you if you try you may have a 291 00:16:28,870 --> 00:16:25,639 different 292 00:16:32,269 --> 00:16:28,880 scale um the strangeness is defined a 293 00:16:34,749 --> 00:16:32,279 graph represented with two steep hills 294 00:16:36,629 --> 00:16:34,759 not one there isn't one distribution 295 00:16:39,069 --> 00:16:36,639 there are at least two 296 00:16:41,829 --> 00:16:39,079 distributions which is a mistake that 297 00:16:43,710 --> 00:16:41,839 we're making when we go testify before 298 00:16:45,949 --> 00:16:43,720 Congress there are two different 299 00:16:47,829 --> 00:16:45,959 distributions and they are very very 300 00:16:50,509 --> 00:16:47,839 very 301 00:16:52,670 --> 00:16:50,519 different in strangeness category one 302 00:16:53,790 --> 00:16:52,680 the witness may have observed an unusual 303 00:16:57,069 --> 00:16:53,800 light in the 304 00:17:00,629 --> 00:16:57,079 sky or at at a ground level which 305 00:17:04,069 --> 00:17:00,639 behaved in some curious way it's 306 00:17:06,350 --> 00:17:04,079 unlikely they would call authorities but 307 00:17:08,789 --> 00:17:06,360 the sighting may become known especially 308 00:17:11,630 --> 00:17:08,799 very is an unusual physiological 309 00:17:13,829 --> 00:17:11,640 reaction at the same time or some other 310 00:17:17,309 --> 00:17:13,839 incident you would find those in the 311 00:17:20,029 --> 00:17:17,319 files of the Air Force uh which I spent 312 00:17:22,189 --> 00:17:20,039 four years going through one by 313 00:17:25,110 --> 00:17:22,199 one in the old 314 00:17:27,510 --> 00:17:25,120 days uh in Stranges category two the 315 00:17:29,510 --> 00:17:27,520 object is better defined like a luminous 316 00:17:32,070 --> 00:17:29,520 body 317 00:17:34,470 --> 00:17:32,080 with complex shapes or 318 00:17:37,270 --> 00:17:34,480 displacement uh We've mentioned some of 319 00:17:39,950 --> 00:17:37,280 them you know this morning or a sphere 320 00:17:40,950 --> 00:17:39,960 in the sky that appears to fly Against 321 00:17:44,710 --> 00:17:40,960 the 322 00:17:47,190 --> 00:17:44,720 Wind um sometimes it's a definite silent 323 00:17:49,549 --> 00:17:47,200 steady light that was extinguished 324 00:17:51,270 --> 00:17:49,559 suddenly and therefore couldn't have 325 00:17:55,190 --> 00:17:51,280 been an artificial 326 00:17:58,430 --> 00:17:55,200 satellite well um those cases go to 327 00:18:00,909 --> 00:17:58,440 official organizations that are trusted 328 00:18:04,510 --> 00:18:00,919 I've assumed that maybe three people out 329 00:18:07,270 --> 00:18:04,520 of 10 would report something if it was 330 00:18:09,990 --> 00:18:07,280 in some ways touching them 331 00:18:14,029 --> 00:18:10,000 personally for for example if they had 332 00:18:16,710 --> 00:18:14,039 some reaction to it uh in my early days 333 00:18:20,230 --> 00:18:16,720 at Paris Observatory we were responsible 334 00:18:22,909 --> 00:18:20,240 as public servants for answering and 335 00:18:27,149 --> 00:18:22,919 trying to explain reports that the 336 00:18:28,870 --> 00:18:27,159 French people were sending us um and we 337 00:18:30,310 --> 00:18:28,880 had to do that because artificial 338 00:18:33,430 --> 00:18:30,320 satellites were going to be very 339 00:18:36,149 --> 00:18:33,440 important and there was a a tremendous 340 00:18:39,390 --> 00:18:36,159 education program to do with the 341 00:18:41,710 --> 00:18:39,400 population many people thought it was uh 342 00:18:43,310 --> 00:18:41,720 uh Soviet propaganda and there was no 343 00:18:45,270 --> 00:18:43,320 such thing me you look at the sky you 344 00:18:47,710 --> 00:18:45,280 don't see a 345 00:18:52,750 --> 00:18:47,720 satellite most of the 346 00:18:54,310 --> 00:18:52,760 time um so we uh we were assigned during 347 00:18:55,909 --> 00:18:54,320 the day during the night we would 348 00:19:00,990 --> 00:18:55,919 observe and during the day we would 349 00:19:06,029 --> 00:19:01,000 answer letters from people uh um and 350 00:19:08,070 --> 00:19:06,039 um uh some of those remained unexplained 351 00:19:10,310 --> 00:19:08,080 the the satellite that dis disappears 352 00:19:13,390 --> 00:19:10,320 right in the middle of the sky is simply 353 00:19:17,110 --> 00:19:13,400 because it went into the the the shade 354 00:19:18,710 --> 00:19:17,120 of the earth know the cone of of the 355 00:19:20,909 --> 00:19:18,720 shade of the earth people don't know 356 00:19:24,710 --> 00:19:20,919 that so they see a light that goes like 357 00:19:27,110 --> 00:19:24,720 this and po it disappears which seems 358 00:19:29,310 --> 00:19:27,120 mysterious uh those things are 359 00:19:32,070 --> 00:19:29,320 explainable and people are very grateful 360 00:19:35,990 --> 00:19:32,080 when you explain 361 00:19:38,750 --> 00:19:36,000 that um Everything Changes in category 362 00:19:40,590 --> 00:19:38,760 three the motivation is urgent people 363 00:19:43,870 --> 00:19:40,600 will call the Air Force they will call 364 00:19:45,990 --> 00:19:43,880 the army they will call the the police 365 00:19:49,270 --> 00:19:46,000 uh like an orange Globe has followed 366 00:19:51,750 --> 00:19:49,280 your car on some isolated Road a 367 00:19:54,669 --> 00:19:51,760 luminous object like an airplane on fire 368 00:19:56,470 --> 00:19:54,679 seems to have crashed behind the next 369 00:20:00,830 --> 00:19:56,480 Hill 370 00:20:04,430 --> 00:20:00,840 um the life has been diving on an 371 00:20:07,310 --> 00:20:04,440 isolated car and the engine died at the 372 00:20:11,190 --> 00:20:07,320 same time a flotilla of Lights has 373 00:20:15,230 --> 00:20:11,200 slowly slowly crossed the sky leaving a 374 00:20:19,750 --> 00:20:15,240 trail or a flying cylinder With No Wings 375 00:20:24,270 --> 00:20:22,430 carrier the public is troubled by these 376 00:20:26,990 --> 00:20:24,280 observations so are the people on the 377 00:20:29,710 --> 00:20:27,000 aircraft carrier uh which don't have an 378 00:20:31,990 --> 00:20:29,720 immediate explanation 379 00:20:34,630 --> 00:20:32,000 we find them in police reports and in 380 00:20:37,149 --> 00:20:34,640 previous cases they may be explainable 381 00:20:39,789 --> 00:20:37,159 but they fill the official files and 382 00:20:43,390 --> 00:20:39,799 often end up in the records of concerned 383 00:20:48,390 --> 00:20:43,400 agency like the CNAs in France or a 384 00:20:50,909 --> 00:20:48,400 local Airbase in the US or now the 385 00:20:56,190 --> 00:20:50,919 Pentagon if any 386 00:20:58,830 --> 00:20:56,200 uh they some fall to civilian 387 00:21:01,630 --> 00:20:58,840 Services uh military unit on radar 388 00:21:05,310 --> 00:21:01,640 stations investigators review the data 389 00:21:08,270 --> 00:21:05,320 talk to Pilots talk to technical U 390 00:21:10,750 --> 00:21:08,280 organizations in the area so that's the 391 00:21:13,630 --> 00:21:10,760 Black Hill you see a report number one 392 00:21:17,390 --> 00:21:13,640 report number two report number three so 393 00:21:19,789 --> 00:21:17,400 on if an object overcomes a car and 394 00:21:23,029 --> 00:21:19,799 lands on the road ahead of 395 00:21:25,950 --> 00:21:23,039 you and then takes off again we're in 396 00:21:30,070 --> 00:21:25,960 strangeness category 397 00:21:32,830 --> 00:21:30,080 4 the report May not go to the Air Force 398 00:21:36,510 --> 00:21:32,840 it might go to the local police 399 00:21:39,510 --> 00:21:36,520 probably um and in many cases it goes to 400 00:21:43,630 --> 00:21:39,520 a local journalist you know or to an 401 00:21:45,149 --> 00:21:43,640 independent researcher or in most cases 402 00:21:47,669 --> 00:21:45,159 there is no 403 00:21:50,350 --> 00:21:47,679 report because you're afraid that people 404 00:21:52,669 --> 00:21:50,360 will make fun of you or the reputation 405 00:21:55,110 --> 00:21:52,679 of your company will be you know you 406 00:21:58,390 --> 00:21:55,120 would be surprised the number of CEOs 407 00:22:00,310 --> 00:21:58,400 within 10 months of Stanford um you know 408 00:22:02,830 --> 00:22:00,320 who know me as a venture capitalist have 409 00:22:05,830 --> 00:22:02,840 come to me to talk to me about something 410 00:22:09,310 --> 00:22:05,840 like this was never 411 00:22:12,269 --> 00:22:09,320 reported in strous Category 5 um 412 00:22:14,470 --> 00:22:12,279 everything becomes even more scary the 413 00:22:18,310 --> 00:22:14,480 probability of any official report is 414 00:22:20,230 --> 00:22:18,320 almost zero perhaps a creature has come 415 00:22:22,669 --> 00:22:20,240 out of the object that was in front of 416 00:22:25,430 --> 00:22:22,679 your car perhaps a witness is felt a 417 00:22:28,390 --> 00:22:25,440 form of communication with whatever it 418 00:22:31,990 --> 00:22:28,400 was or even a physiological reaction 419 00:22:34,669 --> 00:22:32,000 ction such as temporary paralysis we 420 00:22:37,870 --> 00:22:34,679 have many cases of that 421 00:22:40,350 --> 00:22:37,880 hundreds such cases have filled my files 422 00:22:43,190 --> 00:22:40,360 over the years and I don't need 423 00:22:45,310 --> 00:22:43,200 permission of Congress to study them I 424 00:22:48,029 --> 00:22:45,320 just call the guy and you know if I'm 425 00:22:50,029 --> 00:22:48,039 lucky gives me a cup of coffee and and 426 00:22:53,669 --> 00:22:50,039 we talk about his experience I mean 427 00:22:56,390 --> 00:22:53,679 there is no official 428 00:22:58,350 --> 00:22:56,400 anything experienced ethologist will 429 00:23:00,110 --> 00:22:58,360 tell you there's a category six six and 430 00:23:04,230 --> 00:23:00,120 a category 431 00:23:07,070 --> 00:23:04,240 seven the red curve again that are very 432 00:23:10,110 --> 00:23:07,080 seldom considered by the police the army 433 00:23:13,230 --> 00:23:10,120 or the serious news 434 00:23:16,310 --> 00:23:13,240 organizations uh because um they are 435 00:23:19,350 --> 00:23:16,320 weird and they're also high in number 436 00:23:22,510 --> 00:23:19,360 and rich in content no witness wants to 437 00:23:26,310 --> 00:23:22,520 be exposed as a crazy person by some 438 00:23:28,950 --> 00:23:26,320 scientist journalist or law officer yet 439 00:23:31,590 --> 00:23:28,960 these reports are often correlated to 440 00:23:35,310 --> 00:23:31,600 physical observations that are quite 441 00:23:37,870 --> 00:23:35,320 real category 7 one would Place reports 442 00:23:40,710 --> 00:23:37,880 of what people have called deductions 443 00:23:43,590 --> 00:23:40,720 for lack of a better term and the 444 00:23:44,789 --> 00:23:43,600 probability of an official report is 445 00:23:48,070 --> 00:23:44,799 very 446 00:23:50,710 --> 00:23:48,080 low one is back to what sociologist 447 00:23:53,230 --> 00:23:50,720 Pierre lrange in France has called the 448 00:23:55,950 --> 00:23:53,240 rumor there is a rumor about these 449 00:23:59,029 --> 00:23:55,960 things it's difficult to pinpoint 450 00:24:01,149 --> 00:23:59,039 specific cases 451 00:24:04,070 --> 00:24:01,159 and even that assumes that the 452 00:24:07,070 --> 00:24:04,080 unconscious mind has reported it to the 453 00:24:11,110 --> 00:24:10,110 mind and hypnosis is not going to get 454 00:24:14,870 --> 00:24:11,120 you 455 00:24:16,190 --> 00:24:14,880 there contrary to what my friends in 456 00:24:18,549 --> 00:24:16,200 euphology 457 00:24:21,029 --> 00:24:18,559 believe so there are two conclusions 458 00:24:22,630 --> 00:24:21,039 that can be drawn from our curve with 459 00:24:25,950 --> 00:24:22,640 the two 460 00:24:28,870 --> 00:24:25,960 hills a current analysis methods are 461 00:24:31,789 --> 00:24:28,880 insufficient even blind before most of 462 00:24:35,310 --> 00:24:31,799 the reports and those reports themselves 463 00:24:37,750 --> 00:24:35,320 derive from an unknown and large number 464 00:24:40,669 --> 00:24:37,760 of observations by the public because 465 00:24:43,549 --> 00:24:40,679 this is out of 10 observations and I've 466 00:24:47,430 --> 00:24:43,559 just estimated the height of the curve 467 00:24:51,470 --> 00:24:47,440 that is a report be military analysis 468 00:24:54,789 --> 00:24:51,480 are highly relevant they teach us a lot 469 00:24:56,750 --> 00:24:54,799 but only in a minority of sightings in 470 00:25:00,230 --> 00:24:56,760 the United 471 00:25:03,190 --> 00:25:00,240 States namely the classic cases 472 00:25:07,870 --> 00:25:03,200 available to very specialized equipment 473 00:25:10,909 --> 00:25:07,880 like aboard limits or the ship that 474 00:25:13,710 --> 00:25:10,919 followed the limits when we're told that 475 00:25:17,029 --> 00:25:13,720 2% or 3% of the cases remain un 476 00:25:19,029 --> 00:25:17,039 explained after serious study you must 477 00:25:20,830 --> 00:25:19,039 relate these figures to the estimated 478 00:25:23,269 --> 00:25:20,840 number of observations that were not 479 00:25:26,669 --> 00:25:23,279 reported and you have to ask why were 480 00:25:29,669 --> 00:25:26,679 they not reported how many are 481 00:25:32,230 --> 00:25:29,679 there 482 00:25:35,190 --> 00:25:32,240 the official services do work on an 483 00:25:37,830 --> 00:25:35,200 important sample but it's limited by 484 00:25:40,630 --> 00:25:37,840 severe selection parameters which 485 00:25:42,990 --> 00:25:40,640 restrict the scope of their conclusions 486 00:25:46,269 --> 00:25:43,000 a situation which is well understood by 487 00:25:48,990 --> 00:25:46,279 modern science in practice in medicine 488 00:25:52,310 --> 00:25:49,000 for example you would never release a 489 00:25:56,669 --> 00:25:52,320 new drug that had only been tested on a 490 00:26:00,630 --> 00:25:56,679 small statistical sample in one 491 00:26:03,510 --> 00:26:00,640 country I see a serious danger in any 492 00:26:05,070 --> 00:26:03,520 future response to the phenomenon based 493 00:26:08,990 --> 00:26:05,080 on media 494 00:26:12,269 --> 00:26:09,000 Revelations or on a social disclosure 495 00:26:14,430 --> 00:26:12,279 attempt there are many definitions of 496 00:26:17,149 --> 00:26:14,440 disclosure that would present it as a 497 00:26:19,909 --> 00:26:17,159 grave and present danger without due 498 00:26:22,870 --> 00:26:19,919 attention to the more subtle 499 00:26:26,350 --> 00:26:22,880 categories in our data 500 00:26:29,070 --> 00:26:26,360 space it it has to be a danger if you 501 00:26:31,350 --> 00:26:29,080 are looking for fun from the military I 502 00:26:33,510 --> 00:26:31,360 mean that's what they deal with if it's 503 00:26:36,510 --> 00:26:33,520 not dangerous they'll cut your funding 504 00:26:40,630 --> 00:26:36,520 which is which occasionally 505 00:26:43,190 --> 00:26:40,640 happens to us uh it is true that uh we 506 00:26:44,430 --> 00:26:43,200 suffer from almost a century of neglect 507 00:26:48,669 --> 00:26:44,440 and 508 00:26:51,750 --> 00:26:48,679 ignorance but this um will not be uh 509 00:26:55,909 --> 00:26:51,760 correlated by or corrected by 510 00:26:59,029 --> 00:26:55,919 overreacting to the present or potential 511 00:27:02,430 --> 00:26:59,039 danger that our own ignorance has 512 00:27:06,630 --> 00:27:02,440 created nor will it be corrected by 513 00:27:11,389 --> 00:27:06,640 simply dumping all the files into some 514 00:27:14,669 --> 00:27:11,399 AI engine uh my PhD is in AI 1968 515 00:27:16,630 --> 00:27:14,679 Northwestern uh AI has been along all 516 00:27:20,149 --> 00:27:16,640 all the time it's in factories it's in 517 00:27:22,830 --> 00:27:20,159 your car it's everywhere what the AI 518 00:27:27,310 --> 00:27:22,840 that people are talking about now is the 519 00:27:30,470 --> 00:27:27,320 latest the latest version uh of of AI 520 00:27:33,710 --> 00:27:30,480 which is which faces the 521 00:27:37,190 --> 00:27:33,720 public everything else works I 522 00:27:38,950 --> 00:27:37,200 mean uh but it doesn't work on files 523 00:27:40,269 --> 00:27:38,960 where you cannot even Define what the 524 00:27:44,549 --> 00:27:40,279 problem 525 00:27:47,990 --> 00:27:44,559 is we need to do we need to apply AI at 526 00:27:49,430 --> 00:27:48,000 the at the level where we have already 527 00:27:52,310 --> 00:27:49,440 done serious 528 00:27:54,630 --> 00:27:52,320 investigation with boots on the ground 529 00:27:58,029 --> 00:27:54,640 to clean up the 530 00:28:01,110 --> 00:27:58,039 sample the real solution lies in the 531 00:28:03,509 --> 00:28:01,120 more subtle data categories those we 532 00:28:08,149 --> 00:28:03,519 have neglected all along five six and 533 00:28:11,149 --> 00:28:08,159 seven and in the future um that's where 534 00:28:15,149 --> 00:28:11,159 I want to spend most of my 535 00:28:18,269 --> 00:28:15,159 time in conclusion uh trying to separate 536 00:28:22,029 --> 00:28:18,279 science from the evolution of society 537 00:28:24,590 --> 00:28:22,039 has always been a fudal 538 00:28:28,149 --> 00:28:24,600 exercise early in this presentation we 539 00:28:33,029 --> 00:28:28,159 noted that the probability of a UFO 540 00:28:35,669 --> 00:28:33,039 or UAP maybe report varied with 541 00:28:37,070 --> 00:28:35,679 strangeness it's highest when the case 542 00:28:39,909 --> 00:28:37,080 is clearly 543 00:28:42,310 --> 00:28:39,919 abnormal and observed under good 544 00:28:45,750 --> 00:28:42,320 conditions but doesn't threaten the 545 00:28:49,029 --> 00:28:45,760 witness's emotional stability in 546 00:28:52,149 --> 00:28:49,039 contrast the strange observations those 547 00:28:55,909 --> 00:28:52,159 of their Highest Potential scientific 548 00:28:59,149 --> 00:28:55,919 interest only reach official Services by 549 00:29:00,789 --> 00:28:59,159 accident and I are difficult to analyze 550 00:29:03,110 --> 00:29:00,799 and poorly 551 00:29:05,630 --> 00:29:03,120 socialized we don't have a good enough 552 00:29:08,269 --> 00:29:05,640 picture of their Global characteristics 553 00:29:10,630 --> 00:29:08,279 we know the us we know France you know 554 00:29:11,950 --> 00:29:10,640 what do we know about India what do we 555 00:29:14,149 --> 00:29:11,960 know about 556 00:29:16,470 --> 00:29:14,159 Afghanistan we don't have a good enough 557 00:29:19,269 --> 00:29:16,480 picture and we cannot obtain it by 558 00:29:20,630 --> 00:29:19,279 looking at the official records secret 559 00:29:23,750 --> 00:29:20,640 or 560 00:29:26,509 --> 00:29:23,760 not among concerned Services military 561 00:29:28,350 --> 00:29:26,519 authorities are in a position that is 562 00:29:32,509 --> 00:29:28,360 better defined 563 00:29:34,909 --> 00:29:32,519 but more isolated from the deeper social 564 00:29:37,870 --> 00:29:34,919 reality their equipment provides the 565 00:29:40,430 --> 00:29:37,880 best quality of technical data but it 566 00:29:44,029 --> 00:29:40,440 only addresses specific domains that 567 00:29:47,190 --> 00:29:44,039 don't reveal the global picture that we 568 00:29:49,149 --> 00:29:47,200 need in particular they treat any 569 00:29:52,789 --> 00:29:49,159 anomaly as a Potential 570 00:29:56,310 --> 00:29:52,799 Threat to be extinguished rather than an 571 00:29:58,830 --> 00:29:56,320 opportunity to be observed analyzed and 572 00:30:02,669 --> 00:29:58,840 recorded 573 00:30:06,389 --> 00:30:02,679 the Ron Corporation wrote a very 574 00:30:09,110 --> 00:30:06,399 interesting memo which was not classifi 575 00:30:12,230 --> 00:30:09,120 to the US Navy after the episode of the 576 00:30:16,509 --> 00:30:12,240 limits and I will paraphrase what they 577 00:30:18,909 --> 00:30:16,519 said they said do not ascribe to our 578 00:30:21,149 --> 00:30:18,919 infrared cameras what they what they 579 00:30:22,990 --> 00:30:21,159 cannot tell you everybody has assumed 580 00:30:26,430 --> 00:30:23,000 those were photographs those are not 581 00:30:30,029 --> 00:30:26,440 photographs those are a detection of a 582 00:30:32,350 --> 00:30:30,039 heat resp PS okay it's those are 583 00:30:34,669 --> 00:30:32,360 infrared cameras they are very large 584 00:30:38,070 --> 00:30:34,679 under the wing of the aircraft and they 585 00:30:40,870 --> 00:30:38,080 are they can track uh the 586 00:30:45,190 --> 00:30:40,880 target what you bought from us was a 587 00:30:48,509 --> 00:30:45,200 specific system that you asked for as to 588 00:30:50,950 --> 00:30:48,519 develop that records a heat signature of 589 00:30:52,149 --> 00:30:50,960 the engines of an enemy airplane you're 590 00:30:56,549 --> 00:30:52,159 going to 591 00:31:01,110 --> 00:30:56,559 attack we didn't sell you a UFO detector 592 00:31:07,789 --> 00:31:05,470 O the real danger lies in the lack of a 593 00:31:11,470 --> 00:31:07,799 wider research 594 00:31:15,710 --> 00:31:11,480 program one fun more fundamental and 595 00:31:20,310 --> 00:31:15,720 more accessible addressing the life 596 00:31:23,789 --> 00:31:20,320 sciences and social realities as well as 597 00:31:26,389 --> 00:31:23,799 physical performance and Military 598 00:31:29,950 --> 00:31:26,399 threats beyond the justifiable 599 00:31:33,629 --> 00:31:29,960 protection of of a few secret projects 600 00:31:36,950 --> 00:31:33,639 the time has come for major countries 601 00:31:41,260 --> 00:31:36,960 not just one to open the real files 602 00:31:56,149 --> 00:31:41,270 widely to the scientific Community thank